Tag: weather forecast

6 June 2016 Monday

This week (June 6-12) will be the 4th hottest of the past 25+ years and 2nd driest for the U.S. overall. The week looks cool, dry, sunny with much lower humidity in the Northeast. If you like it hot head to the Western half of the country where temperatures will trend 8 to 15 degrees above normal and especially hot in the Northern Rocky Mountains. This heat moves into the Central U.S. with 90s and even some 100s in the Plains late this week into the weekend. Texas remains on the cool side and fortunately very dry after all the flooding in the Southeast part of the state last week. Florida and the Southeast is the wet spot this week as the 3rd named storm “Colin” of the 2016 season will make landfall tonight well north of Tampa Bay near Cross City. Winds likely to be 52 mph gusting to 63 mph, especially on the East side of the storm. The biggest impact will be excessive rainfall on the East side of the storm with the heaviest totals around Tampa Bay with 4-8″. Waves will be 8-10 feet just off the Coast of Tampa Bay.

The 2016 Hurricane is indeed a fast start and actually a modern day record for the earliest point in the season to have 3 named storms. The last time there were 3 storms by 11 June was way back in 1887 (129 years ago) so we’ve broken that record. As we warned last Fall, the 2016 season would be active and it’s certainly starting that way. To see our long range hurricane outlook visit our Seeds of Success Episode 3.

Next week remains on the warm side for the U.S. overall, 4th warmest of the past 25 years and #1 wettest. We hope farmers are happy with the early Corn rally up 22% from April lows and future prices topping $4.27 from lows $3.51. Likely to go much higher in late July – August with a pending scorching hot/dry Summer!

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NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Friday June 2, 2016

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, formed last weekend and bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to the southeastern U.S. coastline. We see an above normal 15 to 18 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season.

Next week, a new tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico may hit Florida early next week, which would be the third named storm in a season that normally begins on June 1.

In what has been an endless round of thunderstorm activity across the flood-weary state of Texas. A slow-moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas into Saturday.

Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are finally expected to move over this area.

The next storm system in the central U.S. will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the death of the recent El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist through the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s been cooler and wetter across the Prairie Provinces in the past week or so, but drier and warmer weather conditions will return this next week.

FLOODS IN TEXAS. STRONG STORMS IN THE MIDWEST

In what seems an endless round of thunderstorm activity will continue across the flood-weary state of Texas throughout much of the week. A slow- moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas.

The strongest storms are likely to hit Oklahoma and central and western Texas through Wednesday night. The storm will slowly edge eastward into eastern Texas on Thursday. Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are expected to move over this area.

Some parts of the Lone Star State has already received up to 200 percent of their normal rainfall for an entire season, and we’re not even half-way through 2016. Officials say this is the worst flooding since 1998. And, this is the third “500-Year Flood” since May of 2015 in some of these areas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding in the southern Great Plains, strong thunderstorms, which may include tornadic activity, are expected over the northern and central Great Plains Monday night. This storm will move eastward into the Corn Belt on Tuesday where severe conditions are possible. By Wednesday, this system will be moving through the Great Lakes, Illinois, southeastern Missouri and down into the southern Great Plains. These areas will also likely see strong thunderstorms.

The next storm system will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will finally dry out across much of the central U.S. early next week, including the flooded areas of Texas.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie did form and bring flooding rains to parts of South Carolina. This was the second straight season that a named tropical storm made landfall in the Carolinas during the month of May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana hit the Carolinas during Mother’s Day weekend.

This year, Bonnie, the second named storm of what is expected to be a more active tropical storm and hurricane season, caused flash flooding in South Carolina on Sunday. Parts of I-95 were closed on Sunday. Over 10 inches of rain fell in some areas of South Carolina with over 7 inches of rain near the coastal areas of Georgia and North Carolina.

Believe it or not, computer forecast models are indicating that a new tropical storm may form sometime next week. Western Cuba and Florida may be on alert next week as this system could form.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. We’ve already seen two systems and with sea-surface temperatures cooling rapidly, we’re likely to see many more in the coming months.

Elsewhere the East Coast will increasing showers and thunderstorms toward the end of this week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early portion of the following week.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

Remember, we’re looking for a second and third leg up in the grain and soybean markets. The first leg up was due to the flooding and extremely delayed fall harvesting of soybeans and other crops in Argentina. Stay tuned for further developments.

Weekly Weather Update

We continue to see the building up of record heat in the Desert Southwest. We could see readings approach 115 degrees near Death Valley later in the week. By mid to late June, this scorching weather should push into the central U.S. Stay tuned. Happy holiday!

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, could form over the holiday weekend and bring showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern U.S. coastline. The rest of the East Coast is expected to have summerlike weather with temperatures climbing into the 80s all the way up New England.

In the central U.S., more showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Great Plains and into the Corn Belt. Tornadic activity may be seen in the central and southern Plains into the holiday weekend. The unsettled weather in this part of the country is forecast to continue into next week.

Overall, we’re expecting that the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt will be a bit COOLER and WETTER into mid June before things turn both warmer and drier than normal later in the period.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the drying effects of a dying El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist into the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

The Prairie Provinces will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms well into early June. Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s by May 30 to June 5 across south-central Canada.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

We’re in the middle of what is turning out to be a very active “full moon” lunar cycle. Another storm system moving in from the Rockies is forecast to bring damaging thunderstorms and even some tornado activity to parts of the central and southern Great Plains. The regions with the greatest risk include south-central Kansas southward into west-central Texas. Strong thunderstorms are also possible northward into the Corn Belt into Tuesday.

Additional storm systems are expected to bring more rain and thunderstorm activity, possibly severe for the rest of the week across the Great Plains and Corn Belt states. Strong thunderstorms may fire up again in the southern Great Plains by Thursday moving into the Corn Belt on Friday.

The “full moon” pattern of showers and thunderstorms may continue across the central U.S. into the Memorial Day weekend.

Elsewhere, there will be off-and-on rains in the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The East Coast will be mostly dry this week with high temperatures warming into the 80s all the way northward into New England.

FIRE SEASON OUTLOOK

The first day of summer is less than a month away, which means that wildfire season is fast-approaching as well. The Inland Northwest suffered through one of the worst fire seasons, especially in terms of the number of blazes, in recorded history in 2015.

The majority of the western fires last year were in Alaska as approximately 5.2 million acres were burned. Only the 2004 season was worse when over 6.5 million acres went up in smoke. Normally, Alaska sees fires that claim about 800,000 acres each year.

Wildfires in southwestern Canada consumed over 700,000 acres in British Columbia in 2015. For this year, things are not looking much better for our friends to the north. The disastrous Fort McMurray fire in Alberta has consumed nearly 600,000 acres since it began in early May. This event is the worst disaster in Canada’s history as over 2,400 homes and buildings have been destroyed. Damage may exceed $9 billion. As of last week, this fire was still out of control.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in the U.S. burned a record 10.12 million acres in 2015. The previous record was 9.87 million acres set back in 2006. The top three fires in 2015 were in Alaska. The Galena, Tanana and Middle Yukon fires scorched over 1 million areas in that state. The fourth biggest fire in 2015 was Idaho’s Soda Fire which was located in the southwestern portion of the state. Over 279,000 acres were burned. The North Star Fire near Nespelem, Washington, burned about 218,000 acres and sent smoke across North Idaho and eastward to Colorado last August.

For 2016, there have been 17,433 fires reported through May 20. Last year, there were 18,544 blazes through the 20th of May. However, in 2015, approximately 361,000 acres went up in smoke through the middle of May. This year, nearly 1.5 million acres in the U.S. have burned. We’re already ahead of last year, but that does not mean it will be another record season. For example, in 2011, there were 25,189 fires that burned over 2.5 million acres from January 1 through May 13. By the end of 2011, over 8 million acres burned compared to an average of nearly 6.5 million acres.

In addition to the fires in Canada, there have been 2 blazes in Florida that consumed nearly 10,000 acres. One smaller fire in Minnesota burned almost a thousand acres and one large fire in Texas has burned 10,000 acres.

On May 1, the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August. The areas with an above-average threat of wildfires this summer include Hawaii, Alaska, the Desert Southwest, Southern California and the Great Basin. Things could be very bad in 2016 for Southern California as extreme drought conditions still persist. The big El Nino rains never arrived as seasonal moisture totals were near 50 percent. The rest of the U.S. is forecast to have a near to below-normal threat of wildfires.

To the north, Canadian officials are forecasting relatively hot and dry weather from eastern British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan. The drought in Alberta is now expected to worsen this summer, which will not help their fire situation.

19 May 2016 Thursday

Saturday 21 May: Looks downright cold and raw for the Middle Atlantic with the coldest 21-22 May weekend in 14 years and wettest in 13 years. The other coast out West doesn’t look much better trending the coldest in 6 to 8 years for this 3rd weekend in May. The Eastern Rocky Mountains, High Plains and Maine all trend much above average temperatures and warmest in 4 years. Winds up the East side of the Rocky Mountains will be very strong out of the South helping to pump up the warm air well into Central Canada. The worst weather for Saturday is clearly Southeast Virginia with cold, wet, raw and windy conditions. Maine is a top pick for warm, dry, sunny and UV over 6!

Sunday 22 May: Conditions improve a bit in the East but still cool in the Southeast. Out West temperatures are the coldest in 6 years with much below normal temperatures. Strong southerly winds continue to dominate the Central U.S. sending much above average temperatures into the High Plains and warmest 22 May conditions in 4 years. Our best weather pick for Sunday is the state of Wisconsin trending warmest 22 May in 20 years, lighter winds and no rain. Idaho clearly the worst weather pick with the coldest conditions in 6 years and wettest in 18 years.

Saturday 21st May 2016 Weekend Outlook

Next Week: The U.S. overall trends the 6th warmest and 6th wettest of the past 25 years but warmer/drier than last year. The West remains the cool spot trending 2 to 6 degrees below normal while the Central U.S. into the Northeast trends 2 to 10 degrees above normal for the week overall. The heaviest rain will be in the Central U.S. from Dallas to Little Rock where 2-4″ is likely Monday-Friday with the threat for severe weather. The Southwest is the obvious dry spot as is the immediate Gulf Coast from Houston to Tampa – they’ll take it!

5 May 2016 Thursday

Saturday 7 May 2016: A stubborn low pressure system will continue to bring cool and gloomy weather to the Northeast but it’s starting to move out so some hope to see the sun for a time after a week of non-stop clouds. If you think the first week of May has been cold in parts of the Northeast you’re right as outside wt360 headquarters in Bethlehem PA the high temps have been the coldest since 1945! Overall the Mother’s Day weekend is the coolest in 10 years for the Northeast. The other cool spots will be the Southeast and Southwest with temperatures trending below average. The hot spots are the Central Plains and Pacific Northwest where temperatures are the warmest in 3 years and much above average. The Gulf Coast will be under High pressure with UV indices in Texas approaching 12 – very high!

A storm system moving out of the Rockies will bring more late season snowfall to the higher terrain of Wyoming with storminess spilling out into the Central Plains. Severe weather and large hail possible in Western Nebraska and Kansas.

Up North in Fort McMurray, Alberta Canada a raging wild fire continues to devastate the town of 80,000 residents – most have been evacuated. They may get some relief on Sunday with humidity levels increasing from 15% to 48% and some showers but then more dry weather.

Sunday 8 May 2016 (Mother’s Day): Improving conditions for the southern part of the Northeast but New England remains in the grip of that pesky low pressure system while another storm moves into the Central Plains with risk for severe weather and large hail in Kansas – Nebraska as cold air in the Southwest clashes with warm Gulf moisture in the South Central U.S. The UV index remains very high along the southern tier of the U.S. in the 10-11 range.

To see a graphical version  – CLICK HERE

NEXT WEEK (May 9-15): The U.S. overall will trend the warmest in 9 years with nearly the entire country trending above average except the Rocky Mountains. It will also be the 2nd wettest of the past 25 years with more severe weather potential in the Central U.S.

Hope all the Mom’s out there have a great weekend and get treated extra special! 🙂