Tag: warm weather

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start as we’ve now seen 3 named storms. We see an above normal 16 to 20 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season which officially began on June 1.

In the meantime, strong thunderstorm activity is forecast to move into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend.

The next storm system is expected develop across the northern and central Great Plains early next week bringing showers and thunderstorms. The storm should move into the Corn Belt by next Tuesday or Wednesday. This is a break from the heat and drought pattern that is expected to redevelop across the central U.S. as drier and hotter weather is showing up on the long-range computer models beginning around the end of next week. The southern Great Plains, including the flooded areas of Texas look drier than normal for at least the next 10 days.

Elsewhere, there will be occasional showers and a few thunderstorms over the in the Northwest with dry and very warm weather in California. The situation in the southern part of the Golden State is extreme as Lake Mead is at the lowest level in history and no rain is in sight.

The Southeast should be mostly dry into next week, but there may be more showers and thunderstorms across Florida, especially the central portion of the state. Toward the “full moon” cycle around June 20, the Southeast should start to see an increase of showers and thunderstorms. JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, could form over the holiday weekend and bring showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern U.S. coastline. The rest of the East Coast is expected to have summerlike weather with temperatures climbing into the 80s all the way up New England.

In the central U.S., more showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Great Plains and into the Corn Belt. Tornadic activity may be seen in the central and southern Plains into the holiday weekend. The unsettled weather in this part of the country is forecast to continue into next week.

Overall, we’re expecting that the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt will be a bit COOLER and WETTER into mid June before things turn both warmer and drier than normal later in the period.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the drying effects of a dying El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist into the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CHINA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

Much of central China need rain to supplement irrigation. Temperatures are likewise too warm for late May. Some showers may arrive this next week.

Southeastern China has also been experiencing some of the record heat and dryness that has been seen across southeastern Asia.

RUSSIA’S AND UKRAINE’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

Winter grains and developing summer crops will continue to benefit from occasional rains and mild temperatures. No big heat is yet in sight.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

The Prairie Provinces will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms well into early June. Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s by May 30 to June 5 across south-central Canada.

25 May 2016 Wednesday

The first 24 days of May have trended the coldest in 8 years and 1.1F below average for the U.S. as a whole with late frost and freezes mid-month and even snow mid-month in the Great Lakes and Northeast. This has been a huge negative for retail and seasonal merchandise sales with many retailers showing 20% declines in their stock prices the past couple months. Also not particularly favorable for crop development with Growing Degree Days across the Corn Belt the lowest in 8 years, 32% below last year and 22% below average. Rainfall for the U.S. overall is 12% less than last year but still 3% above average for the nation as a whole.

This last week of May makes a wholesale change toward much warmer weather just in time for the unofficial start of Summer. The 25-31 May period trends the warmest in 10 years and 2nd warmest of the past 25 years with national temperatures 3.4F above average. Rainfall is least in 4 years trending 37% less than last year’s very wet end to May and 4% below average.

The holiday weekend (27th-30th) looks awesome in the Northeast, Great Lakes with temperatures trending 10 to 20 degree above normal and mainly scattered afternoon thundershowers. The cool spots remain out in the Rocky Mountains and rain induced coolness in the Coastal Southeast (1-2″ rain). We’ll need to watch the Southeast Coast for the potential to see Bonnie form as the 2nd named storm of the season. Likely to remain week if she does form but just something to ruin the first beach weekend along the Carolina’s. The wettest weather will be TX to AR where 1-3″ and some severe weather is possible and 1-2″ in soggy Nebraska.

Also, check out my latest blog today where I talk about how Spring Weather does NOT predict Summer weather and why why I remain exceptionally confident on a hot/dry Summer!

19 May 2016 Thursday

Saturday 21 May: Looks downright cold and raw for the Middle Atlantic with the coldest 21-22 May weekend in 14 years and wettest in 13 years. The other coast out West doesn’t look much better trending the coldest in 6 to 8 years for this 3rd weekend in May. The Eastern Rocky Mountains, High Plains and Maine all trend much above average temperatures and warmest in 4 years. Winds up the East side of the Rocky Mountains will be very strong out of the South helping to pump up the warm air well into Central Canada. The worst weather for Saturday is clearly Southeast Virginia with cold, wet, raw and windy conditions. Maine is a top pick for warm, dry, sunny and UV over 6!

Sunday 22 May: Conditions improve a bit in the East but still cool in the Southeast. Out West temperatures are the coldest in 6 years with much below normal temperatures. Strong southerly winds continue to dominate the Central U.S. sending much above average temperatures into the High Plains and warmest 22 May conditions in 4 years. Our best weather pick for Sunday is the state of Wisconsin trending warmest 22 May in 20 years, lighter winds and no rain. Idaho clearly the worst weather pick with the coldest conditions in 6 years and wettest in 18 years.

Saturday 21st May 2016 Weekend Outlook

Next Week: The U.S. overall trends the 6th warmest and 6th wettest of the past 25 years but warmer/drier than last year. The West remains the cool spot trending 2 to 6 degrees below normal while the Central U.S. into the Northeast trends 2 to 10 degrees above normal for the week overall. The heaviest rain will be in the Central U.S. from Dallas to Little Rock where 2-4″ is likely Monday-Friday with the threat for severe weather. The Southwest is the obvious dry spot as is the immediate Gulf Coast from Houston to Tampa – they’ll take it!

22 April 2016 Friday (Earth Day)

APRIL 22-28 OUTLOOK:  For the U.S. overall the week will trend 2nd warmest of the past 25 years and warmest in 7 years.  Rainfall is a tad above average and the 7th wettest of the past 25 years for the U.S. as a whole.  California looks to get another 1-3″ of rain from Fresno to northern California – a tad unusual this late in the season as is the 10 to 20 degree below average temperatures in the Central Valleys.  Chance for some spotty frost in the North Central Calif valleys Tuesday the 26th.  Need to watch for a frost and light freeze event Sunday morning from SE Michigan to Eastern PA with a hard freeze for the interior Northeast.  More damage risk for early blooming fruit trees in the NE.  Another more widespread frost potential on Wednesday the 27th from SE Minnesota to Eastern PA with harder freezes for the interior.

APRIL 29 – 5 MAY OUTLOOK:  For the U.S. overall the period ranks warmest in 4 years and 4th warmest of the past 25+ years but a volatile up and down temp week. The Southwest remains cooler than average and that will spread East late in the period. Rainfall appears to be #1 wettest in 25+ years for the U.S. overall with more rain possible state wide in California and heavier 1.5″ to 4.0″ amounts from Arkansas into the Northeast. Some risk for a severe weather outbreak to kick off May (1-3) for the Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic.  One more frost risk May 4th-6th from the Midwest to the Northeast.

11 April 2016 Monday

THIS WEEK (11-17 APRIL): For the U.S. overall the week will trend cooler and drier than last year with a warming trend this week. Severe weather is concentrated in the Deep South from East Texas t0 Mississippi early in the week. The East Coast is trending the coolest in 7 years for this week but a bigger warm up on the way for the coming weekend. That will be a welcome relief after this past weekend that was the coldest in over 25 years with widespread frost and freezes deep into the Southeast and even snow in the Appalachians into PA and NJ. Northeast snowfall to date in the Northeast is the most in 20 years. The severe cold made headline news with many in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast reporting complete crop losses for fruits like plums, apples, peaches, strawberries. The record warm winter caused everything to emerge 3-4 weeks early only to be frozen here in April. wt360 warned of this scenario in our Seeds of Success series Episode 2.

For our farmers in the Corn Belt it looks like a dry period for planting from the 12th – 19th.

NEXT WEEK (18-24 APRIL): A more nationwide warm up with the U.S. trending the warmest in 10 years but on the stormy side with the wettest conditions in 25+ years. The Northeast will have the warmest April period in 8 years, the southeast the driest in 8 years while the South Central is the wettest in 25+ years.

Year-t0-date rainfall for the U.S. has been the wettest in 8 years but that’s a tad misleading as it’s been feast or famine. From the Southwest into the Rocky Mountains into the Central and Northern Plains it’s been very dry with below average rainfall. Some dry areas in the Western Corn Belt from Minnesota down into Missouri and Western Illinois. The Central Appalachians have also been on the dry side. The wet areas have been from North Central California into the Pacific Northwest. The Arkansas to Louisiana to Mississippi area has also been very wet.

30 March 2016 Wednesday

March is just about in the history books and the month overall will trend:

  1. 2nd warmest in 121 years (thank you El Nino) and the warmest since 2012.
  1. Rainfall was the most since 1998 (the last record strong El Nino) and 19% above average for the U.S. overall.  Nationally +4.7F above average for 260 major cities.
  1. Snowfall was the 3rd least in 25+ years and 46% below average.

April won’t be as extremely warm with the month overall likely to be above average but coolest in 3 years, still wet but drier than last year but more snow early in the month.  The Northeast is actually the coolest in 9 years with a very cold and even snowy start (interior elevations) to the month with a hard freeze next week likely to negatively impact fruit trees, vineyards and berries in the Great Lakes into New Jersey since this vegetation is out about 3-4 weeks too early.  The first week of April in the Northeast will be the 2nd coldest in 14 years and most snowfall in 9 years.  Could even see some flurries in the NYC area.  Out West it will go from cold/snowy here at the end of March in the Central Rockies to 60s next week.

The Pacific Ocean is showing a classic signature that La Nina is right around the corner.  The sub-surface water temperatures are now below normal all across the Pacific and that cooler water is just about to crack the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean in the next 30-60 days.  Winds have gone from strong El Nino westerly winds in the Eastern Pacific (January) to Easterly winds now – again classic signature the pattern is changing as we speak.  Even out in the Western Pacific near Australia the westerly winds have returned signalling an end to El Nino.

Sets the stage for a coolish middle Spring here in the Eastern U.S. but then turning scorching hot/dry by late June – August with a severe heat-wave and drought for much of the Central and Eastern U.S.  The Deep South likely to be warm, humid and wet with hurricane threats by July and then potentially a parade of storms August – October with an end to the 10+ year hurricane drought in the U.S.!  Gulf Coast and Florida highest risk areas, Northeast not so much as we’ll be under a dominating high pressure system much of Summer – again classic La Nina signature.