Tag: usa weather

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start as we’ve now seen 3 named storms. We see an above normal 16 to 20 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season which officially began on June 1.

In the meantime, strong thunderstorm activity is forecast to move into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend.

The next storm system is expected develop across the northern and central Great Plains early next week bringing showers and thunderstorms. The storm should move into the Corn Belt by next Tuesday or Wednesday. This is a break from the heat and drought pattern that is expected to redevelop across the central U.S. as drier and hotter weather is showing up on the long-range computer models beginning around the end of next week. The southern Great Plains, including the flooded areas of Texas look drier than normal for at least the next 10 days.

Elsewhere, there will be occasional showers and a few thunderstorms over the in the Northwest with dry and very warm weather in California. The situation in the southern part of the Golden State is extreme as Lake Mead is at the lowest level in history and no rain is in sight.

The Southeast should be mostly dry into next week, but there may be more showers and thunderstorms across Florida, especially the central portion of the state. Toward the “full moon” cycle around June 20, the Southeast should start to see an increase of showers and thunderstorms. JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

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A THIRD TROPICAL STORM IN THE EAST WITH RECORD HEAT IN THE WEST (Tuesday June 7, 2016)

The third named storm of the tropical storm and hurricane season, Colin, is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds across northern Florida and the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas into early Tuesday. Up to 4-8 inches of rain is expected around Fort Meyers, Tampa, Jacksonville and Tallahassee, Florida. Even Savannah, Georgia may see totals up to 8 inches as well.

By contrast, record heat has been reported across much of the western U.S. early this week. Temperatures are up to 25 degrees above normal, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The heat and dryness has already led to a large brush fire in Southern California that is over 80 percent contained as of early Monday. With the rainfall season over, more brush and wildfires are expected across the West, especially in California into at least the fall season.

In Texas, conditions have dried out a bit after another round of massive flooding last week. A state of disaster was declared across 31 counties of the Lone Star State due to flash flooding. Heavy rain was falling at a rate of up to 3 inches per hour in some areas.

The big ridge in the West is expected to expand to the east later this week. Readings will drop as much as 25-30 degrees by the end of the week across the Inland Northwest. Hotter and dry weather is now forecast to move into the Great Plains and Corn Belt states this week. The next chance of rain and thunderstorm activity will not until at least early next week across the central and southern Great Plains and Corn Belt states. The flooded areas of Texas may see some scattered shower activity, but the drier conditions should persist at least through the weekend.

6 June 2016 Monday

This week (June 6-12) will be the 4th hottest of the past 25+ years and 2nd driest for the U.S. overall. The week looks cool, dry, sunny with much lower humidity in the Northeast. If you like it hot head to the Western half of the country where temperatures will trend 8 to 15 degrees above normal and especially hot in the Northern Rocky Mountains. This heat moves into the Central U.S. with 90s and even some 100s in the Plains late this week into the weekend. Texas remains on the cool side and fortunately very dry after all the flooding in the Southeast part of the state last week. Florida and the Southeast is the wet spot this week as the 3rd named storm “Colin” of the 2016 season will make landfall tonight well north of Tampa Bay near Cross City. Winds likely to be 52 mph gusting to 63 mph, especially on the East side of the storm. The biggest impact will be excessive rainfall on the East side of the storm with the heaviest totals around Tampa Bay with 4-8″. Waves will be 8-10 feet just off the Coast of Tampa Bay.

The 2016 Hurricane is indeed a fast start and actually a modern day record for the earliest point in the season to have 3 named storms. The last time there were 3 storms by 11 June was way back in 1887 (129 years ago) so we’ve broken that record. As we warned last Fall, the 2016 season would be active and it’s certainly starting that way. To see our long range hurricane outlook visit our Seeds of Success Episode 3.

Next week remains on the warm side for the U.S. overall, 4th warmest of the past 25 years and #1 wettest. We hope farmers are happy with the early Corn rally up 22% from April lows and future prices topping $4.27 from lows $3.51. Likely to go much higher in late July – August with a pending scorching hot/dry Summer!

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Friday June 2, 2016

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, formed last weekend and bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to the southeastern U.S. coastline. We see an above normal 15 to 18 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season.

Next week, a new tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico may hit Florida early next week, which would be the third named storm in a season that normally begins on June 1.

In what has been an endless round of thunderstorm activity across the flood-weary state of Texas. A slow-moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas into Saturday.

Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are finally expected to move over this area.

The next storm system in the central U.S. will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the death of the recent El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist through the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s been cooler and wetter across the Prairie Provinces in the past week or so, but drier and warmer weather conditions will return this next week.

FLOODS IN TEXAS. STRONG STORMS IN THE MIDWEST

In what seems an endless round of thunderstorm activity will continue across the flood-weary state of Texas throughout much of the week. A slow- moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas.

The strongest storms are likely to hit Oklahoma and central and western Texas through Wednesday night. The storm will slowly edge eastward into eastern Texas on Thursday. Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are expected to move over this area.

Some parts of the Lone Star State has already received up to 200 percent of their normal rainfall for an entire season, and we’re not even half-way through 2016. Officials say this is the worst flooding since 1998. And, this is the third “500-Year Flood” since May of 2015 in some of these areas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding in the southern Great Plains, strong thunderstorms, which may include tornadic activity, are expected over the northern and central Great Plains Monday night. This storm will move eastward into the Corn Belt on Tuesday where severe conditions are possible. By Wednesday, this system will be moving through the Great Lakes, Illinois, southeastern Missouri and down into the southern Great Plains. These areas will also likely see strong thunderstorms.

The next storm system will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will finally dry out across much of the central U.S. early next week, including the flooded areas of Texas.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie did form and bring flooding rains to parts of South Carolina. This was the second straight season that a named tropical storm made landfall in the Carolinas during the month of May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana hit the Carolinas during Mother’s Day weekend.

This year, Bonnie, the second named storm of what is expected to be a more active tropical storm and hurricane season, caused flash flooding in South Carolina on Sunday. Parts of I-95 were closed on Sunday. Over 10 inches of rain fell in some areas of South Carolina with over 7 inches of rain near the coastal areas of Georgia and North Carolina.

Believe it or not, computer forecast models are indicating that a new tropical storm may form sometime next week. Western Cuba and Florida may be on alert next week as this system could form.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. We’ve already seen two systems and with sea-surface temperatures cooling rapidly, we’re likely to see many more in the coming months.

Elsewhere the East Coast will increasing showers and thunderstorms toward the end of this week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early portion of the following week.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

Remember, we’re looking for a second and third leg up in the grain and soybean markets. The first leg up was due to the flooding and extremely delayed fall harvesting of soybeans and other crops in Argentina. Stay tuned for further developments.

May 2016 Global Weather Summary & Crop Growing Region Roundup

May 2016 U.S. Weather Roundup

Temperatures for the U.S. overall it was the coolest in May in 5 years trending 11th coldest of the past 25+ years (-0.1F below average and -1.3F colder than last year). But it was a month full of wild extremes with record cold frost and freezes in the middle of the month from the Midwest to the Northeast. This did more damage to crops, berries and fruit trees. There was even some light accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast. Late in the month over the Memorial Day weekend many cities in the Northeast had their first official heat-wave with 3-days over 90F. Some areas had 4 days over 90F with the Newark NJ area setting a record of 96F.

May 2016 US Weather Trends

Rainfall was the 10th wettest of the past 25+ years for the U.S. overall trending 17% drier than last year but still 4.9% above average. Rainfall was again excessive in South Central Texas where some spots had over 12″ for the month. Kansas City area also had near 10″ of rain. The wettest spot appears to be around Vero Beach Florida where a whopping 18″ of rain fell.

Tornadoes were 17% below average and 43% less than last year with a preliminary total of 216 reports.

Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall near Charleston South Carolina Sunday May 29th becoming only the 4th time in 165 years to have two named tropical systems before the official start of the Hurricane Season (1 June – 30 November). Previous years with fast starts were 2012, 1908 and 1887.

Global Crop Region Weather Summary:

May 2016 Global Weather Trends

  • U.S. Corn Belt – coolest in 5 years with slightly below average temperatures with rainfall 20% less than last year and 13% below average.
  • Brazil Corn Growing Regions
    • Brazil Mato Grosso warmest in 11 years, rainfall +25% above average rainfall (spotty with some areas much drier)
  • Brazil Mato Gross do Sul warmest in 3 years but below average with the 3rd wettest in 25+ years (+91% above average)
  • Brazil Parana coldest in 12 years and near record wet with rainfall +156% above average.
  • Argentina Soybean Region (harvest season)
    • Coldest in over 25 years but driest in 8 years with -72% below average during their final stages of harvest
  • China Corn Growing Regions (planting season)
    • Heilongjiang warmest in 3 years 5th wettest in 25+ years, +45% above average.
  • Jilin warmest in 3 years with near record rainfall trending +121% above average and most in over 25+ years.
  • Shandong average temperatures with -19% below average rainfall similar to last year.
  • Ukraine
    • Coldest in 7 years with below average temperatures and wettest conditions in over 25 years +55% above average.

June 2016 looks to remain wet in Texas and the Southern Rocky Mountains while the Western Corn Belt into the Southeast has the driest front half of June since 2012. Front half of June looks to be the 3rd driest of the past 25 years in Iowa, Missouri, Georgia and 5th driest in 25 year for Kansas – they’ll welcome so drying out. Texas not so lucky as they look to get off to the wettest start in over 25 years! South Florida remains wet with the risk of some tropical activity as the Caribbean ocean temperatures are 1 to 3F above average.

Temperatures for the front half of the month are cooler than average from Texas to the Ohio Valley while the Southeast is warmer than average with the West Coast cooking in very hot temperatures.

Late June looks to get very hot/dry for much of the country with the hottest driest Summer in 4 years for the U.S. overall.

Weekly Weather Update

We continue to see the building up of record heat in the Desert Southwest. We could see readings approach 115 degrees near Death Valley later in the week. By mid to late June, this scorching weather should push into the central U.S. Stay tuned. Happy holiday!

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, could form over the holiday weekend and bring showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern U.S. coastline. The rest of the East Coast is expected to have summerlike weather with temperatures climbing into the 80s all the way up New England.

In the central U.S., more showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Great Plains and into the Corn Belt. Tornadic activity may be seen in the central and southern Plains into the holiday weekend. The unsettled weather in this part of the country is forecast to continue into next week.

Overall, we’re expecting that the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt will be a bit COOLER and WETTER into mid June before things turn both warmer and drier than normal later in the period.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the drying effects of a dying El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist into the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 9TH

The Prairie Provinces will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms well into early June. Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s by May 30 to June 5 across south-central Canada.