Tag: tropical system

May 2016 Global Weather Summary & Crop Growing Region Roundup

May 2016 U.S. Weather Roundup

Temperatures for the U.S. overall it was the coolest in May in 5 years trending 11th coldest of the past 25+ years (-0.1F below average and -1.3F colder than last year). But it was a month full of wild extremes with record cold frost and freezes in the middle of the month from the Midwest to the Northeast. This did more damage to crops, berries and fruit trees. There was even some light accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast. Late in the month over the Memorial Day weekend many cities in the Northeast had their first official heat-wave with 3-days over 90F. Some areas had 4 days over 90F with the Newark NJ area setting a record of 96F.

May 2016 US Weather Trends

Rainfall was the 10th wettest of the past 25+ years for the U.S. overall trending 17% drier than last year but still 4.9% above average. Rainfall was again excessive in South Central Texas where some spots had over 12″ for the month. Kansas City area also had near 10″ of rain. The wettest spot appears to be around Vero Beach Florida where a whopping 18″ of rain fell.

Tornadoes were 17% below average and 43% less than last year with a preliminary total of 216 reports.

Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall near Charleston South Carolina Sunday May 29th becoming only the 4th time in 165 years to have two named tropical systems before the official start of the Hurricane Season (1 June – 30 November). Previous years with fast starts were 2012, 1908 and 1887.

Global Crop Region Weather Summary:

May 2016 Global Weather Trends

  • U.S. Corn Belt – coolest in 5 years with slightly below average temperatures with rainfall 20% less than last year and 13% below average.
  • Brazil Corn Growing Regions
    • Brazil Mato Grosso warmest in 11 years, rainfall +25% above average rainfall (spotty with some areas much drier)
  • Brazil Mato Gross do Sul warmest in 3 years but below average with the 3rd wettest in 25+ years (+91% above average)
  • Brazil Parana coldest in 12 years and near record wet with rainfall +156% above average.
  • Argentina Soybean Region (harvest season)
    • Coldest in over 25 years but driest in 8 years with -72% below average during their final stages of harvest
  • China Corn Growing Regions (planting season)
    • Heilongjiang warmest in 3 years 5th wettest in 25+ years, +45% above average.
  • Jilin warmest in 3 years with near record rainfall trending +121% above average and most in over 25+ years.
  • Shandong average temperatures with -19% below average rainfall similar to last year.
  • Ukraine
    • Coldest in 7 years with below average temperatures and wettest conditions in over 25 years +55% above average.

June 2016 looks to remain wet in Texas and the Southern Rocky Mountains while the Western Corn Belt into the Southeast has the driest front half of June since 2012. Front half of June looks to be the 3rd driest of the past 25 years in Iowa, Missouri, Georgia and 5th driest in 25 year for Kansas – they’ll welcome so drying out. Texas not so lucky as they look to get off to the wettest start in over 25 years! South Florida remains wet with the risk of some tropical activity as the Caribbean ocean temperatures are 1 to 3F above average.

Temperatures for the front half of the month are cooler than average from Texas to the Ohio Valley while the Southeast is warmer than average with the West Coast cooking in very hot temperatures.

Late June looks to get very hot/dry for much of the country with the hottest driest Summer in 4 years for the U.S. overall.


Potential Hurricane August 24-28, 2016

A series of celestial events taking place between the 24th and 28th of August, 2016 promise the potential for severe weather that may be tropical in nature. Key astronomical charts used in long-range weather forecasting place the planetary alignments involving Mars, Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Jupiter over hurricane-prone sectors of the US East Coast.

The Mars-Saturn conjunction of August 24th begins the parade of celestial harbingers. As seen from the astro-locality map below, their area of influence, represented by the yellow lines, takes in the North Carolina and Virginia coasts and into the Northeast. More importantly, the crossing of these lines with the black line representing the influence of Neptune focuses their energies about 250 miles off the coast of central Florida.

The Mars-Saturn conjunction of August 24th, 2016

The alignments of Mars, Saturn, and Neptune have been observed to correspond with atmospheric turbulence, destructive, windy storms, and low pressure systems fed by tropical moisture, which can be of greater significance when occurring during hurricane season.

The second astro-locality map shows the positions of the Venus-Jupiter conjunction of August 27th represented by the blue lines over the New England area. These lines also converge with the Mars and Saturn white lines south of New England. Lastly, the Neptune line, shown in yellow, affects the Florida Panhandle northward through the East Central US into the central Great Lakes region.

Venus-Jupiter conjunction of August 27th. 2016

August 24-28, 2016

Taken together, during the forecast period, the US East Central section is likely to experience a bout of strong storms that push through the area towards the East Coast. One likely scenario shows the development of a tropical system off the coast of Florida which would then travel in parallel to the coast with a strong chance of affecting the New England area. A second scenario calls for tropical moisture, that doesn’t develop into an organized tropical system, to be pulled northward over the Carolinas fueling storms that affect the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and New England areas.