Tag: tornadoes

FLOODS IN TEXAS. STRONG STORMS IN THE MIDWEST

In what seems an endless round of thunderstorm activity will continue across the flood-weary state of Texas throughout much of the week. A slow- moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas.

The strongest storms are likely to hit Oklahoma and central and western Texas through Wednesday night. The storm will slowly edge eastward into eastern Texas on Thursday. Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are expected to move over this area.

Some parts of the Lone Star State has already received up to 200 percent of their normal rainfall for an entire season, and we’re not even half-way through 2016. Officials say this is the worst flooding since 1998. And, this is the third “500-Year Flood” since May of 2015 in some of these areas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding in the southern Great Plains, strong thunderstorms, which may include tornadic activity, are expected over the northern and central Great Plains Monday night. This storm will move eastward into the Corn Belt on Tuesday where severe conditions are possible. By Wednesday, this system will be moving through the Great Lakes, Illinois, southeastern Missouri and down into the southern Great Plains. These areas will also likely see strong thunderstorms.

The next storm system will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will finally dry out across much of the central U.S. early next week, including the flooded areas of Texas.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie did form and bring flooding rains to parts of South Carolina. This was the second straight season that a named tropical storm made landfall in the Carolinas during the month of May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana hit the Carolinas during Mother’s Day weekend.

This year, Bonnie, the second named storm of what is expected to be a more active tropical storm and hurricane season, caused flash flooding in South Carolina on Sunday. Parts of I-95 were closed on Sunday. Over 10 inches of rain fell in some areas of South Carolina with over 7 inches of rain near the coastal areas of Georgia and North Carolina.

Believe it or not, computer forecast models are indicating that a new tropical storm may form sometime next week. Western Cuba and Florida may be on alert next week as this system could form.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. We’ve already seen two systems and with sea-surface temperatures cooling rapidly, we’re likely to see many more in the coming months.

Elsewhere the East Coast will increasing showers and thunderstorms toward the end of this week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early portion of the following week.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

Remember, we’re looking for a second and third leg up in the grain and soybean markets. The first leg up was due to the flooding and extremely delayed fall harvesting of soybeans and other crops in Argentina. Stay tuned for further developments.

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May 2016 Global Weather Summary & Crop Growing Region Roundup

May 2016 U.S. Weather Roundup

Temperatures for the U.S. overall it was the coolest in May in 5 years trending 11th coldest of the past 25+ years (-0.1F below average and -1.3F colder than last year). But it was a month full of wild extremes with record cold frost and freezes in the middle of the month from the Midwest to the Northeast. This did more damage to crops, berries and fruit trees. There was even some light accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast. Late in the month over the Memorial Day weekend many cities in the Northeast had their first official heat-wave with 3-days over 90F. Some areas had 4 days over 90F with the Newark NJ area setting a record of 96F.

May 2016 US Weather Trends

Rainfall was the 10th wettest of the past 25+ years for the U.S. overall trending 17% drier than last year but still 4.9% above average. Rainfall was again excessive in South Central Texas where some spots had over 12″ for the month. Kansas City area also had near 10″ of rain. The wettest spot appears to be around Vero Beach Florida where a whopping 18″ of rain fell.

Tornadoes were 17% below average and 43% less than last year with a preliminary total of 216 reports.

Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall near Charleston South Carolina Sunday May 29th becoming only the 4th time in 165 years to have two named tropical systems before the official start of the Hurricane Season (1 June – 30 November). Previous years with fast starts were 2012, 1908 and 1887.

Global Crop Region Weather Summary:

May 2016 Global Weather Trends

  • U.S. Corn Belt – coolest in 5 years with slightly below average temperatures with rainfall 20% less than last year and 13% below average.
  • Brazil Corn Growing Regions
    • Brazil Mato Grosso warmest in 11 years, rainfall +25% above average rainfall (spotty with some areas much drier)
  • Brazil Mato Gross do Sul warmest in 3 years but below average with the 3rd wettest in 25+ years (+91% above average)
  • Brazil Parana coldest in 12 years and near record wet with rainfall +156% above average.
  • Argentina Soybean Region (harvest season)
    • Coldest in over 25 years but driest in 8 years with -72% below average during their final stages of harvest
  • China Corn Growing Regions (planting season)
    • Heilongjiang warmest in 3 years 5th wettest in 25+ years, +45% above average.
  • Jilin warmest in 3 years with near record rainfall trending +121% above average and most in over 25+ years.
  • Shandong average temperatures with -19% below average rainfall similar to last year.
  • Ukraine
    • Coldest in 7 years with below average temperatures and wettest conditions in over 25 years +55% above average.

June 2016 looks to remain wet in Texas and the Southern Rocky Mountains while the Western Corn Belt into the Southeast has the driest front half of June since 2012. Front half of June looks to be the 3rd driest of the past 25 years in Iowa, Missouri, Georgia and 5th driest in 25 year for Kansas – they’ll welcome so drying out. Texas not so lucky as they look to get off to the wettest start in over 25 years! South Florida remains wet with the risk of some tropical activity as the Caribbean ocean temperatures are 1 to 3F above average.

Temperatures for the front half of the month are cooler than average from Texas to the Ohio Valley while the Southeast is warmer than average with the West Coast cooking in very hot temperatures.

Late June looks to get very hot/dry for much of the country with the hottest driest Summer in 4 years for the U.S. overall.

21 March 2016 Monday

We’ll have it all weather wise this week in the U.S. with a early Spring blizzard, severe weather, tornadoes, flooding, spring temps, winter temps and might as well throw in some sneezing and bugs for good measure.

First up is a storm system that will move into the Central States with severe weather out in front of it while a snow storm rages on the northern fringe of the system from Colorado to Northern Michigan. A widespread band of 4-8″ is likely from Colorado and Wyoming through South Dakota and Nebraska midweek and then into Southern Minnesota/Iowa and ultimately Wisconsin and Northern Michigan. There will be some pockets of 12″ snow totals and even upwards of 18″ further East into Northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan by Thursday.

On the southern fringe of the storm there will be 1-5″ rainfall totals in the Southeast from Louisiana to North Florida along with some severe weather in the form of severe thunderstorms and even some tornadoes Thursday and again over the Easter weekend. Temperatures will surge some 25 degrees ahead of this cold front in the East through late week. Bugs and allergies are all off to a strong early start in the South and East with the 2nd warmest first few weeks of March on record, more similar to the really warm start in2012.

On a global scale the cold spots for the first two weeks of Spring are in Central and Eastern Canada where they will get off to the 3rd year in a row with a cold start to Spring. Not as cold as last year’s near record cold, but cold enough. This will set the stage for a cold start to April in the Central and parts of the Eastern U.S. as this cold air dives South in the week ahead. The very warm March will be a distant memory with a chillier April for the Eastern half of the U.S. and very likely the 2nd coldest April of the past 18 years in the Central U.S. and coldest in 3 years for the U.S. overall, driest in 4 but snowiest in 3…not exactly good news for most retailers or warm seasonal products.

To see how we help Fortune 1,000 companies, watch our latest video which also provides a few sneak peeks at our year-ahead forecast. http://www.weathertrends360.com/B2B/Episode/1

Hope your week is off to a great start!

7 March 2016 Monday

It looks like Winter is over for the Eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. at least for the next two weeks. We are expecting that the rapidly collapsing El Nino (headed for La Nina by Summer and strong La Nina by Fall) will bring some COLDER intrusions in April and May with some late frost and freezes! Potentially very bad news for early sprouting trees, crops and berries in the Midwest – Northeast.

For our Farmer friends visit our Seeds of Success series to see what we expect this year here in the U.S.

SEEDS OF SUCCESS EPISODE 1

SEEDS OF SUCCESS EPISODE 2

SEEDS OF SUCCESS EPISODE 3

For now here are some 2-week trends across the world for the 7-20 March period:

  • Eastern half of the U.S. 2nd warmest in 25+ years – a near record warm surge!
  • A severe weather/tornado outbreak likely Tue-Fri this week and again the latter half of next week in the South Central States-Southeast. Flooding also likely in this region with the wettest March period in over 25+ years!
  • Western U.S. already off to the wettest March in 21 years with more rain and heavy mountain snow. Overall the coolest in 6 years out West with some frost potential during this period for the Central San Joaquin valley.
  • Europe is the coolest in 3 years with slightly below average temperatures.
  • Mongolia the coldest in 6 years.
  • Middle East hottest in 6 years, 2nd hottest in 25+ years.

For big businesses looking to become PROACTIVE vs REACTIVE to the volatile weather a year-ahead, check out our video on how we eliminate the headaches.