la nada – United States Weather Outlook

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, could form over the holiday weekend and bring showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern U.S. coastline. The rest of the East Coast is expected to have summerlike weather with temperatures climbing into the 80s all the way up New England.

In the central U.S., more showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Great Plains and into the Corn Belt. Tornadic activity may be seen in the central and southern Plains into the holiday weekend. The unsettled weather in this part of the country is forecast to continue into next week.

Overall, we’re expecting that the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt will be a bit COOLER and WETTER into mid June before things turn both warmer and drier than normal later in the period.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the drying effects of a dying El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist into the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CHINA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

Much of central China need rain to supplement irrigation. Temperatures are likewise too warm for late May. Some showers may arrive this next week.

Southeastern China has also been experiencing some of the record heat and dryness that has been seen across southeastern Asia.

RUSSIA’S AND UKRAINE’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

Winter grains and developing summer crops will continue to benefit from occasional rains and mild temperatures. No big heat is yet in sight.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 6TH

The Prairie Provinces will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms well into early June. Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s by May 30 to June 5 across south-central Canada.

WEEKLY WEATHER AND COMMODITY COMMENTS (MONDAY 23RD MAY, 2016)

Food shelves are empty in Venezuela and parts of Columbia in South America. A man was killed in the streets this week for $5 in Caracas. Why aren’t we sending food to these hungry people when we have large supplies of grain in the U.S.? Ask Mr. Obama.

Soybean meal soared later on Friday to nearly $395-a-ton, this despite a 20 cent weather-related crash in soybeans. Soybean meal is telling us that we will soon have a second leg up, probably the result of June record heat, in the grain and soybean complex. This scorching weather is already blasting the Desert Southwest with near triple-digit heat.

The big heat pattern is moving east towards Texas and eventually will reach the Great Plains and at least the western Corn Belt states later next month.

Stay tuned for further weather and commodity updates. I would still buy some November or January soybean “call” options on the major dips as well as some deferred corn and wheat “calls.”

By the way, Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, Nevada, is currently at its lowest water levels in its history. Water restrictions remain in effect across much of the bone-dry Desert Southwest for the fifth year in-a-row.

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): Heavy rainfall will move across the Mid- Atlantic states and into the Southeast through Saturday, spreading northward into New England on Sunday.

Flash flooding is possible across these regions which will likely lead to travel delays. There has been so much rain that places from central Texas to central Louisiana have already received about 150 percent of their normal rainfall for the season, and it’s only mid May.

The central U.S. will see another round of moisture next week. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the eastern Great Plains by late Sunday and move into the Corn Belt on Monday. More showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the Corn Belt toward the middle to the end of next week. By the Memorial Day weekend, more moisture is likely across the Corn Belt as well as the central Great Plains. The flooded areas of Texas and the Gulf Coast should see a break from the heavy rainfall.

Overall, we’re expecting that the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt will be a bit COOLER and WETTER into early June before things turn both warmer and drier than normal later in the period.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): As El Nino weakens, this mid summer cycle will be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.