Tag: huricane season

A THIRD TROPICAL STORM IN THE EAST WITH RECORD HEAT IN THE WEST (Tuesday June 7, 2016)

The third named storm of the tropical storm and hurricane season, Colin, is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds across northern Florida and the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas into early Tuesday. Up to 4-8 inches of rain is expected around Fort Meyers, Tampa, Jacksonville and Tallahassee, Florida. Even Savannah, Georgia may see totals up to 8 inches as well.

By contrast, record heat has been reported across much of the western U.S. early this week. Temperatures are up to 25 degrees above normal, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The heat and dryness has already led to a large brush fire in Southern California that is over 80 percent contained as of early Monday. With the rainfall season over, more brush and wildfires are expected across the West, especially in California into at least the fall season.

In Texas, conditions have dried out a bit after another round of massive flooding last week. A state of disaster was declared across 31 counties of the Lone Star State due to flash flooding. Heavy rain was falling at a rate of up to 3 inches per hour in some areas.

The big ridge in the West is expected to expand to the east later this week. Readings will drop as much as 25-30 degrees by the end of the week across the Inland Northwest. Hotter and dry weather is now forecast to move into the Great Plains and Corn Belt states this week. The next chance of rain and thunderstorm activity will not until at least early next week across the central and southern Great Plains and Corn Belt states. The flooded areas of Texas may see some scattered shower activity, but the drier conditions should persist at least through the weekend.

FLOODS IN TEXAS. STRONG STORMS IN THE MIDWEST

In what seems an endless round of thunderstorm activity will continue across the flood-weary state of Texas throughout much of the week. A slow- moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas.

The strongest storms are likely to hit Oklahoma and central and western Texas through Wednesday night. The storm will slowly edge eastward into eastern Texas on Thursday. Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are expected to move over this area.

Some parts of the Lone Star State has already received up to 200 percent of their normal rainfall for an entire season, and we’re not even half-way through 2016. Officials say this is the worst flooding since 1998. And, this is the third “500-Year Flood” since May of 2015 in some of these areas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding in the southern Great Plains, strong thunderstorms, which may include tornadic activity, are expected over the northern and central Great Plains Monday night. This storm will move eastward into the Corn Belt on Tuesday where severe conditions are possible. By Wednesday, this system will be moving through the Great Lakes, Illinois, southeastern Missouri and down into the southern Great Plains. These areas will also likely see strong thunderstorms.

The next storm system will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will finally dry out across much of the central U.S. early next week, including the flooded areas of Texas.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie did form and bring flooding rains to parts of South Carolina. This was the second straight season that a named tropical storm made landfall in the Carolinas during the month of May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana hit the Carolinas during Mother’s Day weekend.

This year, Bonnie, the second named storm of what is expected to be a more active tropical storm and hurricane season, caused flash flooding in South Carolina on Sunday. Parts of I-95 were closed on Sunday. Over 10 inches of rain fell in some areas of South Carolina with over 7 inches of rain near the coastal areas of Georgia and North Carolina.

Believe it or not, computer forecast models are indicating that a new tropical storm may form sometime next week. Western Cuba and Florida may be on alert next week as this system could form.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. We’ve already seen two systems and with sea-surface temperatures cooling rapidly, we’re likely to see many more in the coming months.

Elsewhere the East Coast will increasing showers and thunderstorms toward the end of this week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early portion of the following week.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

Remember, we’re looking for a second and third leg up in the grain and soybean markets. The first leg up was due to the flooding and extremely delayed fall harvesting of soybeans and other crops in Argentina. Stay tuned for further developments.