Tag: hot

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start as we’ve now seen 3 named storms. We see an above normal 16 to 20 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season which officially began on June 1.

In the meantime, strong thunderstorm activity is forecast to move into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend.

The next storm system is expected develop across the northern and central Great Plains early next week bringing showers and thunderstorms. The storm should move into the Corn Belt by next Tuesday or Wednesday. This is a break from the heat and drought pattern that is expected to redevelop across the central U.S. as drier and hotter weather is showing up on the long-range computer models beginning around the end of next week. The southern Great Plains, including the flooded areas of Texas look drier than normal for at least the next 10 days.

Elsewhere, there will be occasional showers and a few thunderstorms over the in the Northwest with dry and very warm weather in California. The situation in the southern part of the Golden State is extreme as Lake Mead is at the lowest level in history and no rain is in sight.

The Southeast should be mostly dry into next week, but there may be more showers and thunderstorms across Florida, especially the central portion of the state. Toward the “full moon” cycle around June 20, the Southeast should start to see an increase of showers and thunderstorms. JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SO LONG EL NINO. HERE COMES A NEW LA NINA

SO LONG EL NINO. HERE COMES A NEW LA NINA.

According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the middle of May has marked the end to one of the strong El Nino events in history. This warm water phenomenon is being blamed, at least in part, to generating the hottest global temperatures in more than 130 years as records for worldwide heat have been falling for 12 consecutive months.

The Australian Weather Bureau also said that “sea-surface temperatures have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler than average waters beneath the surface.” This may be one indicator that the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, La Nina, will be forming. The Weather Bureau also said that, “in the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels.” This means we’re now in a La Nada, the in-between El Nino and La Nina event.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center as well as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seem to agree that a new La Nina will be forming in the very near future. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center gives a 75 percent chance that La Nina will come to life by the end of the year. However, they also mention that it could form sometime between July and September. The Australian computer models suggests that La Nina may form as soon as next month, but more likely to be seen between June and August.

Thanks to El Nino, palm oil prices hit a two-year high in March as drought hits parts of Asia and Australia. With a new La Nina pattern, heavy rains often return to Indonesia and India. This event also increases the chances of tropical storm and hurricane formation in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, but decrease a bit in the Pacific Ocean regions.

The latest sea-surface temperature data now shows a stretch of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures along the Equatorial regions westward to the West Coast of South America. This is a strong indicator that we could indeed see that new La Nina pattern as soon as this summer.

Despite a new La Nada, there is still plenty of warmer than normal ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino’s influence continues to be felt across other parts of the world. Across southeastern Asia, eastern and southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, severe drought has resulted in food shortages.

I have discussed talking about a new Midwestern heat and drought pattern later this spring and summer that may be similar to the one back in 2012. During that year, extreme heat and dryness killed 123 people. It practically destroyed crops in the Corn Belt and caused over $31 billion in damages. This pattern was one of the worst since the infamous “Dust Bowl Days” of the 1930s. We see the big ridge of high pressure moving into the central portions of the country around mid to late June [see maps below]

outlook

In California, a new La Nina is not good news. The southern portion of the state was counting on record rainfall from what was considered one of the strongest El Ninos in history. Unfortunately, most of the moisture fell to the north as this region received approximately 50 to 60 percent of normal rainfall for the 2015-16 season. In Northern California, totals were near 100 to 150 percent. It did help the drought situation, but many parts of the Golden State will be entering its 6th year of dryness. Lake Mead is now seeing some of the lowest levels in history.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

We’re in the middle of what is turning out to be a very active “full moon” lunar cycle. Another storm system moving in from the Rockies is forecast to bring damaging thunderstorms and even some tornadic activity to parts of the central and southern Great Plains. The regions with the greatest risk include south-central Kansas southward into west-central Texas. Strong thunderstorms are also possible northward into the Corn Belt into Tuesday.

Additional storm systems are expected to bring more rain and thunderstorm activity, possibly severe for the rest of the week across the Great Plains and Corn Belt states. Strong thunderstorms may fire up again in the southern Great Plains by Thursday moving into the Corn Belt on Friday.

The “full moon” pattern of showers and thunderstorms may continue across the central U.S. into the Memorial Day weekend.

Elsewhere, there will be off-and-on rains in the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The East Coast will be mostly dry this week with high temperatures warming into the 80s all the way northward into New England.

April 2016 Global Weather Summary

April 2016 is in the weather history books. There were a lot of challenges for businesses and especially farmers around the world.

Here in the U.S. April overall was cooler than last year for the Eastern half of the country with the Northeast the real cool spot, trending coldest and snowiest in 9 years while the other end of the country was the warmest in 25+ years in the Pacific Northwest.

April-blog-1-us-temps_blogThere were several devastating freezes in the East with so much vegetation emerging 3-4 weeks early this year due to the record warm Winter and 2nd Warmest March in 121 years. The 4th -10th was particularly devastating with many days of low temps in the 15F to 28F range with freezes all the way into South Carolina on the 6th and 10th. Many fruit tree farmers in the region are expecting major losses. Temperatures moderated significantly for the later half of the month. The Plains also had some freezes mid-month with patchy frost late in the month in the Midwest.

April-blog-2-us-daily-chart_blog  For the U.S. as a whole April ended up +0.8F warmer than average but -0.7F colder than last year.

April-blog-3-25-yr-temp-chart_blogGlobally there were all sorts of impacts to farmers especially with major freezes in France destroying much of the grapes – not a good year for French wines. Brazil ended up the hottest in over 25+ years with major negative impacts to their Corn Crops that were pollinating right in the middle of a 3-week hot/dry stretch of 90s.

April-blog-4-global-temp-mapRainfall in the U.S. was feast or famine with the Central Plains from Texas to South Dakota getting inundated, especially the Houston area where over 16″ of rain fell during the month. In the Upper Midwest it was the driest in 12 years, the Northeast driest in 6 years. Parts of California had more heavy rain and heavy mountain snow – very unusual for April.

April-blog-5-us-precip_blogDay-by-Day the wettest periods nationally were the 11th, 18th and 30th.

April-blog-6-us-daily-precip-chart_blogDespite the flooding rains in the Central U.S., the U.S. overall still had the driest April in 4 years but still above average.

April-blog-7-precip-25-yr-trendsSnowfall was heaviest in the Northeast and the Rocky Mountains with the national index the most in 3 years and near average.

April-blog-8-snowfall-25-yr-trendsGlobally rainfall was also excessive down in Argentina where it was the wettest in 17 years but in some areas record flooding. The SoyBean harvest was decimated with farmers unable to harvest with many crops lost which sent SoyBean prices soaring to 9 month highs while just to the north Brazil was being scorched with heat and very dry conditions.

April-blog-9-global-rain-map_blogFinally, it is very clear La Niña is forming at warp speed. Compared to this time last year the Pacific Ocean is cooling off very quickly with the Equatorial Pacific starting to show the classic cooler water temperatures associated with La Niña.

April-blog-10-global-ocean-temps_blogWhile NOAA said just a few weeks ago there is a 50% chance of La Nina, got’a love government thinking, in reality all signs point to near 100% certainty of a La Nina with weak conditions by June, moderate by July, strong by late Summer and potentially very strong by late Fall – Winter. Here’s their latest model, common sense and empirical evidence suggest there is no doubt we’re headed for a prolonged 2-year La Nina which bring hot/dry Summers and cold/dry Winters for the U.S. overall.