Tag: heat

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start as we’ve now seen 3 named storms. We see an above normal 16 to 20 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season which officially began on June 1.

In the meantime, strong thunderstorm activity is forecast to move into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend.

The next storm system is expected develop across the northern and central Great Plains early next week bringing showers and thunderstorms. The storm should move into the Corn Belt by next Tuesday or Wednesday. This is a break from the heat and drought pattern that is expected to redevelop across the central U.S. as drier and hotter weather is showing up on the long-range computer models beginning around the end of next week. The southern Great Plains, including the flooded areas of Texas look drier than normal for at least the next 10 days.

Elsewhere, there will be occasional showers and a few thunderstorms over the in the Northwest with dry and very warm weather in California. The situation in the southern part of the Golden State is extreme as Lake Mead is at the lowest level in history and no rain is in sight.

The Southeast should be mostly dry into next week, but there may be more showers and thunderstorms across Florida, especially the central portion of the state. Toward the “full moon” cycle around June 20, the Southeast should start to see an increase of showers and thunderstorms. JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

A Scorching Hot Summer & Drought for Corn Belt Farmers!!!

We sure hope you’re preparing for a scorching hot Summer with a drought more widespread than 2012 and yes a big rally coming for corn prices. If you’re in the heart of the Corn Belt from Nebraska to Pennsylvania it would be a good idea to have crop insurance this year and even in the Deep South the late Summer-Fall hurricane season is likely to be equally devastating. Yes soil moisture levels right now are OK…let’s talk around July 4th when they’ll be anything but for the Western half of the Corn Belt.

ag-web-9El Nino is collapsing at warp speed and nearly every major El Nino transitions to moderate to strong La Nina within a year and this year will be no different. We don’t need to hear the word La Nina is here as the trend already tells us that a scorching hot/dry Summer is on the way for many in the Corn Belt. Year-to-date rainfall in the Corn Belt is the 2nd least in 25+ years and least in 13 years, similar to last year. But last year was an emerging epic El Nino year so don’t expect the rains to materialize this Summer – they won’t!

ag-web-2_blogYear-to-date rainfall compared to the past 25 years.

ag-web-1If you saw our Seeds of Success Episode 1 issued last fall you saw our year-ahead forecast for the Corn Belt as a whole which warned of a top 5 hottest Summer in 121 years and at least the driest since 2012, 2nd least in a decade. It’s very likely this forecast is even too optimistic when it comes to core late June – August rainfall.

ag-web-3The government computer models are not usually all that accurate but the better ones are all signaling moderate to even strong La Nina by Summer. Again, the trend is just as important as the index value and the trend is collapsing quickly.

ag-web-4When the government says 50% to 60% chance of La Nina by Summer that’s a very likely forecast in their world of predictions.

ag-web-5We’re not huge believers in analog weather forecasting technology but when 10 of 12 years all suggest scorching heat and drought in July and August based on comparable years back to 1954 you can’t argue there’s a a lot of RISK IN 2016. Plus wt360 expects this to be a 2-year drought so 2016 is just the start!

ag-web-6Again, not a fan of NOAA outlooks but even they agree on the heat and dryness bulls-eye which of course is way under done.

ag-web-7And if all that wasn’t enough we can throw in an epic hurricane season in the making more similar to 1998 and 2005. This will have further impacts for Deep South crops that may escape drought but won’t escape hurricane damage risks like they haven’t seen in 11 years (see our Seeds of Success Episode 3 for more details).

ag-web-8So, as we advised the 1,000+ farmers that use our year-ahead outlooks…get the crop insurance…very likely you’ll need it this year. We happily take calls from any farmer, even if you’re not a client so don’t hesitate to reach out to us at 610-807-0118.