Tag: flooding

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Friday June 2, 2016

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start. The second named storm, Bonnie, formed last weekend and bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to the southeastern U.S. coastline. We see an above normal 15 to 18 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season.

Next week, a new tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico may hit Florida early next week, which would be the third named storm in a season that normally begins on June 1.

In what has been an endless round of thunderstorm activity across the flood-weary state of Texas. A slow-moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas into Saturday.

Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are finally expected to move over this area.

The next storm system in the central U.S. will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the death of the recent El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist through the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 13TH

It’s been cooler and wetter across the Prairie Provinces in the past week or so, but drier and warmer weather conditions will return this next week.

FLOODS IN TEXAS. STRONG STORMS IN THE MIDWEST

In what seems an endless round of thunderstorm activity will continue across the flood-weary state of Texas throughout much of the week. A slow- moving storm will bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to Oklahoma as well as much of Texas.

The strongest storms are likely to hit Oklahoma and central and western Texas through Wednesday night. The storm will slowly edge eastward into eastern Texas on Thursday. Flash flooding is very possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time. By early next week, drier conditions are expected to move over this area.

Some parts of the Lone Star State has already received up to 200 percent of their normal rainfall for an entire season, and we’re not even half-way through 2016. Officials say this is the worst flooding since 1998. And, this is the third “500-Year Flood” since May of 2015 in some of these areas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding in the southern Great Plains, strong thunderstorms, which may include tornadic activity, are expected over the northern and central Great Plains Monday night. This storm will move eastward into the Corn Belt on Tuesday where severe conditions are possible. By Wednesday, this system will be moving through the Great Lakes, Illinois, southeastern Missouri and down into the southern Great Plains. These areas will also likely see strong thunderstorms.

The next storm system will intensify across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt states this weekend producing more showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will finally dry out across much of the central U.S. early next week, including the flooded areas of Texas.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie did form and bring flooding rains to parts of South Carolina. This was the second straight season that a named tropical storm made landfall in the Carolinas during the month of May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana hit the Carolinas during Mother’s Day weekend.

This year, Bonnie, the second named storm of what is expected to be a more active tropical storm and hurricane season, caused flash flooding in South Carolina on Sunday. Parts of I-95 were closed on Sunday. Over 10 inches of rain fell in some areas of South Carolina with over 7 inches of rain near the coastal areas of Georgia and North Carolina.

Believe it or not, computer forecast models are indicating that a new tropical storm may form sometime next week. Western Cuba and Florida may be on alert next week as this system could form.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. We’ve already seen two systems and with sea-surface temperatures cooling rapidly, we’re likely to see many more in the coming months.

Elsewhere the East Coast will increasing showers and thunderstorms toward the end of this week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early portion of the following week.

The hot weather through the weekend will be in the Far West. Temperatures are expected to be at least 20 degrees above normal from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest.

This is the same ridge of high pressure that we’re forecasting to move eastward into the central U.S. in mid June. It’s already been very dry in parts of Indiana and northwestern Illinois where a few stations have barely seen over a half-inch of rain for May. We could see a situation where the mud will soon turn to bricks, especially in the flooded areas in the central portions of the country in a matter of weeks.

Remember, we’re looking for a second and third leg up in the grain and soybean markets. The first leg up was due to the flooding and extremely delayed fall harvesting of soybeans and other crops in Argentina. Stay tuned for further developments.

WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

U.S. WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

We’re in the middle of a very active “full moon” lunar cycle. Additional storm systems are expected to bring more rain and thunderstorm activity, possibly severe for the rest of the week across the Great Plains and Corn Belt states. Strong thunderstorms may fire up again in the southern Great Plains by Thursday moving into the Corn Belt on Friday.

The “full moon” pattern of showers and thunderstorms may continue across the central U.S. into the Memorial Day weekend. More rain and thunderstorm activity is likely across much of the Great Plains and Corn Belt in early June. Drier and warmer weather is forecast in these areas later next month.

Elsewhere, there will be off-and-on rains in the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The East Coast will be mostly dry this week with high temperatures warming into the 80s all the way northward into New England.

CANADA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

The Prairie Provinces will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms well into early June. Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s by May 30 to June 5 across south-central Canada.

AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

The weather patterns across Australia continue to reflect the drying effects of a dying El Nino, especially in the western and southern portions of the continent. However, scattered showers in eastern Australia have improved crop prospects and should persist into the month of June.

Recent rainfall has helped against the hot temperatures in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The hot weather has accelerated cotton and sorghum development.

SOUTH AMERICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

It’s still too dry across northern and central Brazil and much of Paraguay. The double-cropped corn has been hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Much of southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are expected to be drier in the next 10 days finally allowing soybean harvesting, but there still will be scattered showers.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has ended early. The double crop corn has been seriously hurt by drought and heat during pollination. Crop losses are now predicted to be as high as 40 percent, which is vital for cattle feeding operations. Cane sugar has likewise suffered from drought.

SOUTH AFRICA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

Recent moderate rains within the last month have improved the late- planted maize crop that survived the extended period of searing heat and parching drought. But, crop losses remain, which are extensive in many areas throughout hungry Africa, where the epic drought in Ethiopia is termed “the worst in 50 years.” Millions are facing severe malnutrition and even death from a famine worse than 1983-84.

But, this week saw heavy rains and deadly floods killing dozens of people and more than 1,000 cattle in southeastern Ethiopia.

INDIA’S AND PAKISTAN’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

Both India and Pakistan have seen record heat since late March. Hundreds of people in southern India were killed by the hottest spring in recorded history. Water demands are still increasing for wheat and rapeseed in northern India and Pakistan. Only scattered pre-monsoonal showers will occur during the next 10 days across extreme southern India. To the south of India, Sri Lanka continues to see deadly flooding.

Weeks of record high temperatures of over 110 degrees in some areas have caused hundreds of deaths in southern and eastern India with no rain yet in sight.

NORTH KOREA OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 5TH

North Korea is finally seeing some much-needed mid to late spring moisture, but severe drought conditions linger in some areas. Crops are improved over last year, 2015.

MALAYSIA, INDONESIA AND THAILAND OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 5TH

One of the worst droughts on record has caused significant palm oil crop losses across both haze-plagued Indonesia and Malaysia in the past ten months. Crop prices have risen including rice and sugar. Northern Thailand has been hit hard recently by drought in the main rice growing regions. No big rains are yet in sight.

CHINA’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

Much of central China need rain to supplement irrigation. Temperatures are likewise too warm for late May. Some showers may arrive this next week.

Southeastern China has also been experiencing some of the record heat and dryness that has been seen across southeastern Asia.

EUROPE’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

A warming trend will benefit crops across northern and eastern Europe in the next 10 days. It will remain too dry from southern Europe into North Africa. The recent cool weather has helped winter grains and oilseeds in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Poland. Winter crops in Spain are also doing well thanks to the showers and cool temperatures.

RUSSIA’S AND UKRAINE’S WEATHER OUTLOOKS THROUGH JUNE 5TH

Winter grains and developing summer crops will continue to benefit from occasional rains and mild temperatures. No big heat is yet in sight.

June 13-21, 2016 Long-range Weather Forecast

June 2016 will provide an opportunity to confirm the pluvial nature the planet Neptune is said to exercise on weather patterns. The geographical areas that fall under the influence of Neptune in key weather charts have been observed to experience southerly, moist, air flows that increase humidity resulting in intense downpours and flooding potential.

On the 13th of June, Neptune will make its retrograde station which is a key event in triggering the above mentioned atmospheric conditions. The 17th of June features the square aspect between Saturn and Neptune which also excites deep low pressure systems that result in higher than average rainfall. Then, on the 20th of June, Mercury will oppose Saturn and square Neptune activating their influence once again. In a minute we’ll look at the areas that will be affected this year. But first, let’s see what happened to atmospheric conditions the last time Neptune made it retrograde station and the last time Saturn squared Neptune.

On June 12, 2015, Neptune made its retrograde station. In the key seasonal chart, Neptune’s influence affected the eastern Plains states roughly from Louisiana northward through Minnesota. As can be seen from the Accuweather map below this is the exact area that experienced widespread localized flooding from June 13-15, 2016. This was in part due the Tropical Storm Bill that hit Texas at that time and continued northward.

June 13-15, 2016 - Tropical Storm Bill hit Texas &  Continued northward

The last Saturn-Neptune square occurred on November 26, 2015. Neptune’s influence affected the Mississippi Valley and eastward while Saturn’s influence affected the Eastern Seaboard. The National Weather Service forecast for Nov 27-29, 2015 warned, “Flash flooding possible across portions of the southern plains and mid-Mississippi valley.” Their forecast for Nov 29th stated, “Scattered to numerous rain showers is forecast northeast Texas to central Virginia where 3-day totals of 1 to 5 inches will be possible. Locally higher amounts may be observed in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina.”

Forecast

This year Neptune will occupy the 82nd line of west longitude running from Florida through Ohio. This area will likely be subjected to heavy rainfall that produces widespread flooding as we’ve seen in last year’s example. Since we’re in hurricane season, we can rule out a tropical system at this time. The weather pattern will then travel eastward and affect the US East Coast.

In other key charts, the US West Coast is also affected by Neptune and Saturn. June is not as rainy as other months out west but we may see some anomalous weather pattern develop over the Pacific Northwest especially around the end of the forecast period (19th – 21st). This may be something like a dramatic increase in temperatures and humidity or an anomalous low pressure system.

2 May 2016 Monday

THIS WEEK (1-7 MAY): Will trend the coolest and wettest in 3 years for the U.S. as a whole. The Northeast shows the coolest trends with the coolest start to May since 2005 and wettest since 2009. This past Sunday was down right frigid for 1 May with some areas having the coldest high temperatures since 1945 in Eastern PA where Sunday never got out of the high 40s. It was the coldest in 25+ years from Colorado to Chicago to New York City on Sunday. There is more frost and freeze risk for farmers later this week (Thr-Fri) from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.

The heaviest rain this week will be from Houston to New England with a general 0.75″ to 1.5″ for the week. The heaviest rains will be in Eastern Virginia (2″) and out West from North Central California to South Dakota with 1.0″ to 1.5″ for the week. Unusual to have this much rain in May in California.  Folsom Lake Reservoir continues to be on a pace matching the record levels of 1983 and currently 13% above average. Snow melt here in May could push it to 100% capacity which would be 21% above average.

MOTHER’S DAY WEEKEND (7-8 MAY): Don’t forget about Mom! The good news is a dry weekend for 75% of the country with very warm conditions from the Pacific Northwest into the North Central U.S. and yes the Northeast! The cold spots are the Southwest where it will be way below average and across much of the South. The wet spots are generally limited to North Central California through the Rockies toward Southern Minnesota.

NEXT WEEK (8-14 MAY): Most of the country will have above average temperatures with the Central U.S. much above average. The Southwest is the one region to have average to even slightly below average temps for this time of year. MORE FLOODING RISK FOR HOUSTON with widespread 2-5″+ amounts from E. Texas to Alabama. And another 2-4″ in soggy Nebraska that could have some farmers replanting.

21 March 2016 Monday

We’ll have it all weather wise this week in the U.S. with a early Spring blizzard, severe weather, tornadoes, flooding, spring temps, winter temps and might as well throw in some sneezing and bugs for good measure.

First up is a storm system that will move into the Central States with severe weather out in front of it while a snow storm rages on the northern fringe of the system from Colorado to Northern Michigan. A widespread band of 4-8″ is likely from Colorado and Wyoming through South Dakota and Nebraska midweek and then into Southern Minnesota/Iowa and ultimately Wisconsin and Northern Michigan. There will be some pockets of 12″ snow totals and even upwards of 18″ further East into Northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan by Thursday.

On the southern fringe of the storm there will be 1-5″ rainfall totals in the Southeast from Louisiana to North Florida along with some severe weather in the form of severe thunderstorms and even some tornadoes Thursday and again over the Easter weekend. Temperatures will surge some 25 degrees ahead of this cold front in the East through late week. Bugs and allergies are all off to a strong early start in the South and East with the 2nd warmest first few weeks of March on record, more similar to the really warm start in2012.

On a global scale the cold spots for the first two weeks of Spring are in Central and Eastern Canada where they will get off to the 3rd year in a row with a cold start to Spring. Not as cold as last year’s near record cold, but cold enough. This will set the stage for a cold start to April in the Central and parts of the Eastern U.S. as this cold air dives South in the week ahead. The very warm March will be a distant memory with a chillier April for the Eastern half of the U.S. and very likely the 2nd coldest April of the past 18 years in the Central U.S. and coldest in 3 years for the U.S. overall, driest in 4 but snowiest in 3…not exactly good news for most retailers or warm seasonal products.

To see how we help Fortune 1,000 companies, watch our latest video which also provides a few sneak peeks at our year-ahead forecast. http://www.weathertrends360.com/B2B/Episode/1

Hope your week is off to a great start!

18 March 2016 Friday

This last weekend of Winter will be a tad winter-like in the East with a storm system moving up the East Coast.  Fortunately it appears the EURO model that was forecasting widespread 12-18″+ snow totals from Central VA to New England including all the big cities from DC to Boston has backed off that idea.  A more general light snow event is possible on the first day of Spring (Sunday) from DC to Boston with a general 2-6″ event with a narrow band of heavier snow possible from Wilmington Delaware to just East of Philly to just East of New York City where some could get 6-8″ of very wet snow.  Boston and Eastern Mass area likely to get the most with 8-12″ totals possible Sunday.  The US GFS model has been fairly consistent that this is a weaker event while the Euro has waffled more going from epic blizzard to not much back to moderate event so it has not been consistent.  Any snow will melt very quickly due to the high sun angle this time of year and a mostly daytime event.  For the U.S. overall this last weekend of Winter is the coolest in 3 years, 7th coldest of the past 25+ and 5th driest of the past 25+ years. Spring officially arrives Sunday at 12:30am EDT.

Next week a nationwide warm up going into the Easter holiday weekend which looks to be the warmest in 4 years but also 4th wettest in 25+ years.  It does look to get stormier with another round of moderate to heavy rain for the northern half of California Thr-Fri next week but very heavy rain and some severe weather from East Texas to Ohio.  More flooding likely in the Texas to Gulf Coast states where the last week of March looks to bring another 5″+ rain totals on already soggy ground and flooding rivers.

Have a great weekend folks!