Tag: dry

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NEW 180 DAY LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THROUGH JUNE 20 (FULL MOON): With El Nino’s demise, the tropical storm and hurricane season may be getting off to a fast start as we’ve now seen 3 named storms. We see an above normal 16 to 20 named storms for the 2016 tropical storm and hurricane season which officially began on June 1.

In the meantime, strong thunderstorm activity is forecast to move into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend.

The next storm system is expected develop across the northern and central Great Plains early next week bringing showers and thunderstorms. The storm should move into the Corn Belt by next Tuesday or Wednesday. This is a break from the heat and drought pattern that is expected to redevelop across the central U.S. as drier and hotter weather is showing up on the long-range computer models beginning around the end of next week. The southern Great Plains, including the flooded areas of Texas look drier than normal for at least the next 10 days.

Elsewhere, there will be occasional showers and a few thunderstorms over the in the Northwest with dry and very warm weather in California. The situation in the southern part of the Golden State is extreme as Lake Mead is at the lowest level in history and no rain is in sight.

The Southeast should be mostly dry into next week, but there may be more showers and thunderstorms across Florida, especially the central portion of the state. Toward the “full moon” cycle around June 20, the Southeast should start to see an increase of showers and thunderstorms. JUNE 20 (FULL MOON) – AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON): With El Nino gone, this mid summer cycle is expected to be both HOT and DRY to east of the Mississippi River. The East Coast will be wetter and a bit cooler than usual. The western areas should have near to above normal precipitation overall with occasionally hot temperatures. However, readings will not be as torrid as the summer of 2015 across the Northwest.

AUGUST 2 (NEW MOON) – SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): With an expected La Nada or early La Nina pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, this late-summer six week cycle should be drier than usual from California eastward to the Appalachian Mountains. Pod-filling soybeans in the Midwest should suffer damage from extreme drought and heat. Hurricanes should stay along the East Coast and should be higher in number when compared to the 2015 season.

SEPTEMBER 16 (FULL MOON): – OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON): It will be quite chilly this early to mid autumn with early freezes near the Great Lakes. The rest of the U.S. will see normal to drier than normal weather under high pressure. Hurricanes will threaten the southeastern U.S. as El Nino should no longer influence weather patterns.

OCTOBER 30 (NEW MOON) – DECEMBER 14 (FULL MOON): This late fall six-week cycle will likely be wetter and snowier than usual across the Pacific Northwest and the northern portions of the country near the Canadian border. The rest of the nation should be cool, windy and drier than normal.

April 2016 Global Weather Summary

April 2016 is in the weather history books. There were a lot of challenges for businesses and especially farmers around the world.

Here in the U.S. April overall was cooler than last year for the Eastern half of the country with the Northeast the real cool spot, trending coldest and snowiest in 9 years while the other end of the country was the warmest in 25+ years in the Pacific Northwest.

April-blog-1-us-temps_blogThere were several devastating freezes in the East with so much vegetation emerging 3-4 weeks early this year due to the record warm Winter and 2nd Warmest March in 121 years. The 4th -10th was particularly devastating with many days of low temps in the 15F to 28F range with freezes all the way into South Carolina on the 6th and 10th. Many fruit tree farmers in the region are expecting major losses. Temperatures moderated significantly for the later half of the month. The Plains also had some freezes mid-month with patchy frost late in the month in the Midwest.

April-blog-2-us-daily-chart_blog  For the U.S. as a whole April ended up +0.8F warmer than average but -0.7F colder than last year.

April-blog-3-25-yr-temp-chart_blogGlobally there were all sorts of impacts to farmers especially with major freezes in France destroying much of the grapes – not a good year for French wines. Brazil ended up the hottest in over 25+ years with major negative impacts to their Corn Crops that were pollinating right in the middle of a 3-week hot/dry stretch of 90s.

April-blog-4-global-temp-mapRainfall in the U.S. was feast or famine with the Central Plains from Texas to South Dakota getting inundated, especially the Houston area where over 16″ of rain fell during the month. In the Upper Midwest it was the driest in 12 years, the Northeast driest in 6 years. Parts of California had more heavy rain and heavy mountain snow – very unusual for April.

April-blog-5-us-precip_blogDay-by-Day the wettest periods nationally were the 11th, 18th and 30th.

April-blog-6-us-daily-precip-chart_blogDespite the flooding rains in the Central U.S., the U.S. overall still had the driest April in 4 years but still above average.

April-blog-7-precip-25-yr-trendsSnowfall was heaviest in the Northeast and the Rocky Mountains with the national index the most in 3 years and near average.

April-blog-8-snowfall-25-yr-trendsGlobally rainfall was also excessive down in Argentina where it was the wettest in 17 years but in some areas record flooding. The SoyBean harvest was decimated with farmers unable to harvest with many crops lost which sent SoyBean prices soaring to 9 month highs while just to the north Brazil was being scorched with heat and very dry conditions.

April-blog-9-global-rain-map_blogFinally, it is very clear La Niña is forming at warp speed. Compared to this time last year the Pacific Ocean is cooling off very quickly with the Equatorial Pacific starting to show the classic cooler water temperatures associated with La Niña.

April-blog-10-global-ocean-temps_blogWhile NOAA said just a few weeks ago there is a 50% chance of La Nina, got’a love government thinking, in reality all signs point to near 100% certainty of a La Nina with weak conditions by June, moderate by July, strong by late Summer and potentially very strong by late Fall – Winter. Here’s their latest model, common sense and empirical evidence suggest there is no doubt we’re headed for a prolonged 2-year La Nina which bring hot/dry Summers and cold/dry Winters for the U.S. overall.

 

 

 

Corn Popping Hot and Dry for Brazil’s Crop!

The Wall Street Journal had a story today “Expectations Rise for La Nina, Cooler Sister of El Nino Weather”. NEWS FLASH….weathertrends360 said this would happen over 8 months ago. But before we talk La Nina let’s look down South…way South in Brazil.

Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop on the brink of popping and not that good stuff we like to eat in the movies. They’ve had one hurdle after another with their Soybean crop earlier this year with record heat and dry conditions during the growing season only to have floods right at harvest a couple months ago. Now their all-important Safrinha Corn Crop started off OK with hot weather and ample soil moisture only to have pollination take place during a near record hot and dry April.

The top 3 major corn producing areas in Brazil are down in the Southwest corner of the country in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Think of this region as the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Iowa, Illinois, Missouri.

A scorching heat-wave just plagued the region (April 7-11th) with high temperatures of 92F to 97F and nighttime lows in the low to middle 70s. Not good in light of pollination. This map shows how April is likely to end up across Brazil with the corn regions highlighted in the Southwest.

BRAZIL-1Mato Grosso is the biggest Safrinha growing region in Brazil and the 2016 trends for April don’t look good; hottest in 17 years, 2nd hottest on record and driest in 6 years with much below average rainfall. Not sure a cactus would like weather like this…certainly not pollinating corn.

BRAZIL-2A day-by-day summary and outlook shows just about every day trending over 90F in April across the three major growing areas. Notice the scorching heat-wave they just had last week with low to high 90F temps and nighttime temps in the 70s.

BRAZIL-3_blog

The next two weeks are record hot in 2 of the 3 regions so more suffering for local farmers.

brazil-5_blogFor those of you that watched our Seeds of Success videos on crops around the world, you’re not surprised by this as weathertrends360 warned of this last Fall. It’s happening. Doesn’t matter what they planted but rather what they produce and the production will be well below expectations come May and June when they harvest. The first of two commodity rally’s this season. The pattern they’ve had here is eerily similarly to what we expect in the U.S. Corn Belt this season and next year. This is the start of a 2-year drought cycle across the Americas and a classic La Niña pattern along with 23 other climate cycles and statistics.

Seeds of Success Episode 1 – Year ahead U.S. Corn Belt outlook
Seeds of Success Episode 2 – Crops around the world
Seeds of Success Episode 3 – 2016 Hurricane Season

You don’t need the government to officially say it’s La Niña to have La Niña weather conditions set up as they’re already starting to do. NOAA needs to see cold surface anomalies for 3 straight months before they declare it a La Niña so expect that by August. Again – the weather pattern will respond months before the government or academics utter La Niña is here. Just look below the surface of the entire Pacific Ocean and you’ll see just how quickly this El Nino is collapsing (the big ones always do). All that blue water is -2C to -4C colder than normal water and it’s just a 100 feet below the surface and moving up. The El Niño westerly winds have already turned easterly so the La Niña weather pattern is taking shape as we speak. Brazil will say it’s already here.

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Hope you saved some of your corn – much higher prices likely by late July and August! It’s not what you PLANT…it’s what you PRODUCE and Mother Nature is going to have a big say in that in 2016!