Weekend Outlook: Saturday is downright frigid in the Central U.S. and especially the Upper Midwest with northern areas getting a hard freeze. The Upper Midwest in MN, WI, IA and IL will all have the coldest May 14-15 weekend in over 25 years with some record cold likely. It will be very windy making it feel even colder but that might be the saving grace to keep frost from diving deep into the heart of the Corn Belt. Crops that aren’t frozen will certainly be stunted a couple weeks and that just pushes more of the crop into the hot/dry July time frame negatively impacting crop yields…A LOT! National temps on Saturday trend the coldest since 2002 (14 years) which is also a big negative for retail and seasonal merchandise sales. The warmest spot in the country is the Rockies and Northwest where it’s the warmest middle May weekend in 11 years. The Home Centers have way too much flower inventory, much of which will be damaged this weekend and or thrown in the dumpster with very weak consumer demand – not many folks out looking for flowers with very cold and windy conditions.
Sunday the cold shifts East with freezes in the higher elevations of the Appalachians and interior Northeast. Winds again may save the day in terms of frost but cold nonetheless. Stormier weather returns to the South Central U.S. (Texas) and we’ll have to watch for severe weather in light of all this cool weather aloft that can help make thunderstorms particularly severe.
Next Week: Temperatures moderate along the East Coast mid week while very stormy weather and flooding rain potential returns to the TX – AR – MS – LA areas. The North Central U.S. remains on the cold side but a bigger heat-wave possible toward the 21-24 time-frame in the Central U.S. For the nation as a whole the 16-22 May period trends the warmest in 3 years (slightly above average) and the wettest in over 25 years (mainly the South Central and Gulf Coast states).
There were several devastating freezes in the East with so much vegetation emerging 3-4 weeks early this year due to the record warm Winter and 2nd Warmest March in 121 years. The 4th -10th was particularly devastating with many days of low temps in the 15F to 28F range with freezes all the way into South Carolina on the 6th and 10th. Many fruit tree farmers in the region are expecting major losses. Temperatures moderated significantly for the later half of the month. The Plains also had some freezes mid-month with patchy frost late in the month in the Midwest.
For the U.S. as a whole April ended up +0.8F warmer than average but -0.7F colder than last year.
Globally there were all sorts of impacts to farmers especially with major freezes in France destroying much of the grapes – not a good year for French wines. Brazil ended up the hottest in over 25+ years with major negative impacts to their Corn Crops that were pollinating right in the middle of a 3-week hot/dry stretch of 90s.
Rainfall in the U.S. was feast or famine with the Central Plains from Texas to South Dakota getting inundated, especially the Houston area where over 16″ of rain fell during the month. In the Upper Midwest it was the driest in 12 years, the Northeast driest in 6 years. Parts of California had more heavy rain and heavy mountain snow – very unusual for April.
Day-by-Day the wettest periods nationally were the 11th, 18th and 30th.
Despite the flooding rains in the Central U.S., the U.S. overall still had the driest April in 4 years but still above average.
Snowfall was heaviest in the Northeast and the Rocky Mountains with the national index the most in 3 years and near average.
Globally rainfall was also excessive down in Argentina where it was the wettest in 17 years but in some areas record flooding. The SoyBean harvest was decimated with farmers unable to harvest with many crops lost which sent SoyBean prices soaring to 9 month highs while just to the north Brazil was being scorched with heat and very dry conditions.
Finally, it is very clear La Niña is forming at warp speed. Compared to this time last year the Pacific Ocean is cooling off very quickly with the Equatorial Pacific starting to show the classic cooler water temperatures associated with La Niña.
While NOAA said just a few weeks ago there is a 50% chance of La Nina, got’a love government thinking, in reality all signs point to near 100% certainty of a La Nina with weak conditions by June, moderate by July, strong by late Summer and potentially very strong by late Fall – Winter. Here’s their latest model, common sense and empirical evidence suggest there is no doubt we’re headed for a prolonged 2-year La Nina which bring hot/dry Summers and cold/dry Winters for the U.S. overall.
United States Weather Outlook 