Month: April 2016

29 April 2016 Friday

The weekend outlook is stormy for many of us with the nation overall having the wettest end to April – beginning of May in over 25 years. The severe weather threat is again pretty high in the Texas – Oklahoma to Mississippi areas today with that shifting into East Texas to Southern Illinois Saturday. The severe weather threat diminishes a bit Sunday with more general thunderstorms in the East.

The worst weather pick this weekend is clearly Colorado with high temperatures trending the coldest in over 25 years (30s), wettest/snowiest in 17 years. The Northeast is the coolest in 8 years and 2nd wettest in 25+ years so enjoy Saturday as it’s all downhill from there. The Southeast is the probably the best weather pick with temperatures the warmest in 4 years but wettest in 6 for part of the region.

Click here for a graphical view of the USA/Canada Outlook

April will end up cooler than last year for the U.S. overall but still +0.9F warmer than average. Despite the heavy rainfall in the Central U.S. Plains it was the driest in 4 years but still 10% above average for the U.S. as a whole. Snowfall was the most in 3 years – mainly in the Rockies but even the Northeast had the early April snow storm. Arguably the Northeast had the worst April weather trending the coldest in 9 years and snowiest in 9 years. The other corner of the Country (Pacific Northwest) can argue the best weather in the month trending warmest in 25+ years and well below average rainfall.

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25 April 2016 Monday

THIS WEEK (25 Apr – 1 May):

The U.S. will end up the warmest in 3 years for the U.S. as a whole and 2nd wettest in 25+ years for this last week of April. A strong storm system will bring a clash of airmasses (cold in the Rockiest vs warm/moist from the Gulf of Mexico) for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak early this week from Central TX to Nebraska with tornadoes very likely and 3-4″ of rain in spots from Southeast Oklahoma to Southwest Indiana. This may force replanting of recently planted Corn and Soybean crops. Upwards of 5″ of rain is possible in Eastern Wyoming, Western South Dakota and Northwest Nebraska as well. As this storm passes we’ll have to watch for some late frost (low to middle 30s) from South Dakota across northern Iowa into Northern Illinois this Thursday-Friday.

In Europe it’s downright cold, wet and even snowy in places that don’t normally see snow in late April. The week overall will end up the coldest and wettest in 25+ years. Certainly a negative for retail seasonal sales and farmers trying to plant crops.

In Argentina they’re having near record breaking cold as local farmers try and harvest their soybean crops. This is huge negative and in part has soybean prices surging as of late.

Brazil is about to finally cool off a bit after 3 scorching hot/dry weeks in a row. The excessive heat and dry weather right during corn pollination will dramatically reduce their yields and may actually force Brazil to IMPORT U.S. and Argentina Corn as opposed to them normally exporting in June. This too in part created the recent rally in Corn prices. Just a sign of things to come as we head for a major rally in Corn and soybeansthis Summer.

May looks to get off to a cold/wet start in the Northeast with the coolest conditions in 11 years and wettest in over 25…polar opposite last year when May ended up being record hot and dry.

22 April 2016 Friday (Earth Day)

APRIL 22-28 OUTLOOK:  For the U.S. overall the week will trend 2nd warmest of the past 25 years and warmest in 7 years.  Rainfall is a tad above average and the 7th wettest of the past 25 years for the U.S. as a whole.  California looks to get another 1-3″ of rain from Fresno to northern California – a tad unusual this late in the season as is the 10 to 20 degree below average temperatures in the Central Valleys.  Chance for some spotty frost in the North Central Calif valleys Tuesday the 26th.  Need to watch for a frost and light freeze event Sunday morning from SE Michigan to Eastern PA with a hard freeze for the interior Northeast.  More damage risk for early blooming fruit trees in the NE.  Another more widespread frost potential on Wednesday the 27th from SE Minnesota to Eastern PA with harder freezes for the interior.

APRIL 29 – 5 MAY OUTLOOK:  For the U.S. overall the period ranks warmest in 4 years and 4th warmest of the past 25+ years but a volatile up and down temp week. The Southwest remains cooler than average and that will spread East late in the period. Rainfall appears to be #1 wettest in 25+ years for the U.S. overall with more rain possible state wide in California and heavier 1.5″ to 4.0″ amounts from Arkansas into the Northeast. Some risk for a severe weather outbreak to kick off May (1-3) for the Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic.  One more frost risk May 4th-6th from the Midwest to the Northeast.

18 April 2016 Monday

A Topsy-turfy April in the making. The front half (1-15 April) ended up being the coldest in 3 years for the U.S. overall (-0.6F below average), driest in 4 years (10% below average) but the most snow in 3 years (13% above average). There were widespread hard freezes early in the month with the Northeast – Middle Atlantic hardest hit with major crop losses for fruit trees. The Northeast had the worst weather with the front half of the month trending the coldest in over 25 years and snowiest in 9 years.

Now the 2nd half of April looks to be the hottest in 25+ years for the U.S. as a whole (+3.2F above average), #1 wettest in 25+ years (46% above average) and the most snow in 3 years – most of that has already fallen in the Rocky Mountains this past weekend where as much as 5 feet fell in the higher elevations of Colorado.

La Nina update – see our latest blog as our confidence on a strong to potentially very strong La Nina is very high. As you recall, last year we said we’d go into a moderate to strong La Nina this Summer and now that appears 100% certain. NOAA, Australian Met Office say 50% but that’s high confidence for government agencies. ha But it is when they typically give forecasts with 30% to 40% type confidence.

For our farmer clients we hope the 7% rally in Corn has you getting excited that weather is going to play a major role in a major rally later in June when Brazil’s train wreck Safrinha crop comes in way below expectations and then bigger rally in July – August when the U.S. suffers a similar scorching hot/dry Summer. Brazil is now suffering through a 3rd straight week of the hottest conditions in 25+ years, some areas hottest in 121 years with very dry conditions right in the middle of silking and pollination – not good for yields but great for much needed higher prices.

Some of the team here at weathertrends360 spent Friday helping a local farmer get ready for the potentially devastating impacts this La Nina is going to have on the Ag industry this season by installing weather sensors (soil moisture, soil temps, left wetness, etc.) in his field with new center pivot irrigation. Farmer Danny is one of few farmers here in PA with an irrigation system and this will be the year he needs it! See our blog.

Here Comes La Nina! Help Local Farmer Get Ready.

Did you see the stories in the Wall Street journal last week that said government sources in Australia and NOAA say a 50% chance of La Nina this year. REALLY! Typical government where 50% is a high confidence forecast. How’bout this prediction wt360 made a year ago – moderate to strong La Nina by Summer and if you asked us now we’d say 100% certainty we’re headed for strong to potentially near record strong La Nina; weak by June, moderate by July, strong by September and very strong during Winter.

You only need to look below the surface of the Pacific Ocean to see how quickly a massive area covering the entire Pacific Ocean with below normal water temperatures of 3C to 4C below average (5F to 7F below average). This graphic shows the rapid change in just the past couple months with the cold water now reaching the surface near the Galapagos Islands off Ecuador. The once mighty record El Nino is just about vaporized.

la-nina-1_blogLooking at the surface water temperatures over the past month shows the colder than normal waters now bubbling up to the surface off South America in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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In just one month ocean temperatures in this region have plummeted some 10C (18F degrees colder)

Compared to last year at this time it’s very clear the Pacific Ocean temperatures are rapidly cooling and the Easterly winds across the Eastern Pacific Ocean have already set up indicating a La Nina weather pattern is already taking shape.

la-nina-3_blogMost of the computer models now show a strong to potentially record strong La Nina in the making. Weak by June, moderate by July and strong to very strong by Fall. Not at all surprising as what goes way up…usually comes way down so very normal to have a record strong El Nino followed by a very strong to near record strong La Nina.

What’s it all mean? Well if you just factored in ENSO (El Nino – La Nina cycle) you’d make some really bad long term projections but we factor in 24 and a boat of load of statistics which all say we’re headed for a scorching hot/drought Summer in the Midwest and East, a very active hurricane season and then a very cold Fall-Winter, including the devastating heat and drought that is plaguing Brazil’s corn crop with a big rally likely in June and July this year.

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Corn Popping Hot and Dry for Brazil’s Crop!

The Wall Street Journal had a story today “Expectations Rise for La Nina, Cooler Sister of El Nino Weather”. NEWS FLASH….weathertrends360 said this would happen over 8 months ago. But before we talk La Nina let’s look down South…way South in Brazil.

Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop on the brink of popping and not that good stuff we like to eat in the movies. They’ve had one hurdle after another with their Soybean crop earlier this year with record heat and dry conditions during the growing season only to have floods right at harvest a couple months ago. Now their all-important Safrinha Corn Crop started off OK with hot weather and ample soil moisture only to have pollination take place during a near record hot and dry April.

The top 3 major corn producing areas in Brazil are down in the Southwest corner of the country in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Think of this region as the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Iowa, Illinois, Missouri.

A scorching heat-wave just plagued the region (April 7-11th) with high temperatures of 92F to 97F and nighttime lows in the low to middle 70s. Not good in light of pollination. This map shows how April is likely to end up across Brazil with the corn regions highlighted in the Southwest.

BRAZIL-1Mato Grosso is the biggest Safrinha growing region in Brazil and the 2016 trends for April don’t look good; hottest in 17 years, 2nd hottest on record and driest in 6 years with much below average rainfall. Not sure a cactus would like weather like this…certainly not pollinating corn.

BRAZIL-2A day-by-day summary and outlook shows just about every day trending over 90F in April across the three major growing areas. Notice the scorching heat-wave they just had last week with low to high 90F temps and nighttime temps in the 70s.

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The next two weeks are record hot in 2 of the 3 regions so more suffering for local farmers.

brazil-5_blogFor those of you that watched our Seeds of Success videos on crops around the world, you’re not surprised by this as weathertrends360 warned of this last Fall. It’s happening. Doesn’t matter what they planted but rather what they produce and the production will be well below expectations come May and June when they harvest. The first of two commodity rally’s this season. The pattern they’ve had here is eerily similarly to what we expect in the U.S. Corn Belt this season and next year. This is the start of a 2-year drought cycle across the Americas and a classic La Niña pattern along with 23 other climate cycles and statistics.

Seeds of Success Episode 1 – Year ahead U.S. Corn Belt outlook
Seeds of Success Episode 2 – Crops around the world
Seeds of Success Episode 3 – 2016 Hurricane Season

You don’t need the government to officially say it’s La Niña to have La Niña weather conditions set up as they’re already starting to do. NOAA needs to see cold surface anomalies for 3 straight months before they declare it a La Niña so expect that by August. Again – the weather pattern will respond months before the government or academics utter La Niña is here. Just look below the surface of the entire Pacific Ocean and you’ll see just how quickly this El Nino is collapsing (the big ones always do). All that blue water is -2C to -4C colder than normal water and it’s just a 100 feet below the surface and moving up. The El Niño westerly winds have already turned easterly so the La Niña weather pattern is taking shape as we speak. Brazil will say it’s already here.

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Hope you saved some of your corn – much higher prices likely by late July and August! It’s not what you PLANT…it’s what you PRODUCE and Mother Nature is going to have a big say in that in 2016!

11 April 2016 Monday

THIS WEEK (11-17 APRIL): For the U.S. overall the week will trend cooler and drier than last year with a warming trend this week. Severe weather is concentrated in the Deep South from East Texas t0 Mississippi early in the week. The East Coast is trending the coolest in 7 years for this week but a bigger warm up on the way for the coming weekend. That will be a welcome relief after this past weekend that was the coldest in over 25 years with widespread frost and freezes deep into the Southeast and even snow in the Appalachians into PA and NJ. Northeast snowfall to date in the Northeast is the most in 20 years. The severe cold made headline news with many in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast reporting complete crop losses for fruits like plums, apples, peaches, strawberries. The record warm winter caused everything to emerge 3-4 weeks early only to be frozen here in April. wt360 warned of this scenario in our Seeds of Success series Episode 2.

For our farmers in the Corn Belt it looks like a dry period for planting from the 12th – 19th.

NEXT WEEK (18-24 APRIL): A more nationwide warm up with the U.S. trending the warmest in 10 years but on the stormy side with the wettest conditions in 25+ years. The Northeast will have the warmest April period in 8 years, the southeast the driest in 8 years while the South Central is the wettest in 25+ years.

Year-t0-date rainfall for the U.S. has been the wettest in 8 years but that’s a tad misleading as it’s been feast or famine. From the Southwest into the Rocky Mountains into the Central and Northern Plains it’s been very dry with below average rainfall. Some dry areas in the Western Corn Belt from Minnesota down into Missouri and Western Illinois. The Central Appalachians have also been on the dry side. The wet areas have been from North Central California into the Pacific Northwest. The Arkansas to Louisiana to Mississippi area has also been very wet.